An interesting article from the Friends of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce – Economic Forecast: Expect a Late-Year Upswing
Political paralysis in Washington won’t stall an economic recovery that’s revving up across the rest of the country.
That’s the consensus of economists surveyed by USA TODAY, who predict the recovery will accelerate late this year even without a deal by Congress and the White House to lessen the impact of automatic federal budget cuts.
The across-the-board spending cuts will cause growth to slow in the middle of 2013. But the negative effects will ease by the fourth quarter as the private sector gathers strength, according to the 43 leading economists surveyed May 6-9.
This year, the budget cuts are expected to pare federal spending by $65 billion and shave half a percentage point off economic growth, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and Moody’s Analytics.
The economy expanded at a 2.5% annual rate in the first quarter. Economists’ median estimates project growth is likely to slow to 1.8% in the current quarter and 2.2% in the third quarter.